Proyección del futuro de la Agricultura en el 2.035




Hemos alcanzado la Singularidad Tecnológica (2026)

Category : Informatica, Tecnología · by Sep 20th, 2017

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En la sobremesa, de una de nuestras «infrecuentes» comidas, no tuvimos más remedio, que hacernos eco de la noticia más importante del siglo y esta vez de verdad, había ocurrido tan solo hacía diez días y fue el anuncio, de la puesta en marcha de una súper-computadora China, que se suponía tenía una capacidad de cálculo y una memoria superior al cerebro humano. Había llegado el momento tan polémico y discutido durante décadas, la singularidad tecnológica.

Al mejor estilo de la “Carrera hacia la luna” de la segunda mitad del siglo XX, Estados Unidos había competido ferozmente, esta vez contra China, en el diseño de la más potente súper-computadora. En esta carrera se han ido intercalando en la primera posición los dos países, hasta que el 17 de mayo del 2.026, el gobierno Chino inauguro la computadora más potente jamás construida, con una capacidad de cálculo de 3,4 x 1020 Flops[1] (Operaciones de coma flotante por segundo), muy lejos quedan las grandes máquinas que reinaron en las dos últimas décadas como la americana Blue Gian del (2.024) que computaba 8,0 x 1018 Flops, la maquina China Tianhe-2 del (2.013) con una capacidad de 3,38 x 1016 Flops, o la Americana Blue Gene del (2.005) de 3,61 x 1013 Flops.

[1] FLOPS: Es un acrónimo que significa «FLoating point Operations Per Second» u Operaciones de punto(o coma) flotante por segundo. Son una medida de rendimiento de una computadora, especialmente en el campo científico, en donde se utiliza mucho las operaciones con datos de tipo flotante, para realizar simulaciones precisas y obtener resultados fidedignos. Podemos equiparar esta medida de rendimiento con los conocidos IPS (Instrucciones Por Segundo), que es la medida de rendimiento más usual en las computadoras de escritorio.

 

evolución de la capacidad de proceso

Evolución de la capacidad de proceso

Lo más sorprendente de esta noticia es que esta máquina, ha superado el punto de singularidad tecnológica, y esperamos que en torno al año 2.045, la capacidad de cálculo de un solo ordenador sea superior a la capacidad conjunta de los cerebros de toda la especie humana. Las posibilidades de cálculo de esa máquina, abren un escenario para la ciencia y el avance tecnológico, inimaginable hoy en día.

Si bien la noticia de la Singularidad, fue apertura de noticieros y cabecera de periódicos durante casi una semana, todo un record para una noticia científica en estos días, dado que actualmente las noticias sobre gestas deportivas, tragedias, catástrofes, atentados, crisis, ocupan todas las portadas y que unas pocas semanas después apenas se hable de ello, nos da una idea de la poca importancia que damos a las cosas verdaderamente importantes.

 

El cerebro humano es desconcertante. Es curiosamente grande dado el tamaño de nuestro cuerpo, utiliza una cantidad tremenda de energía para su peso y tiene una corteza cerebral singularmente densa, en ningún otro animal se dan, ninguna de estas características. Según los estudios de Suzana Herculano-Houzel poseemos, en promedio, 86 mil millones de neuronas, 16 mil millones de las cuales se encuentran en la corteza cerebral. Si consideramos que la corteza cerebral es la sede de funciones, como la consciencia, el razonamiento lógico y abstracto y que esas 16 mil millones, es la mayor cantidad de neuronas, que posee cualquier otra corteza animal. Ella considera, que esta es la explicación más simple a nuestras habilidades cognitivas extraordinarias. De la misma manera demostró que el cerebro de los primates es especial en relación a otras especies animales, ya que contiene mayor número de neuronas por unidad de masa corporal.

 

Si comparamos la masa del cerebro con el peso del animal, podemos ver que hay varias especies, como los primates, cetáceos o elefantes que tienen cifras similares o superiores a los humanos. Por tanto, no es la masa del cerebro en bruto, la que hay que utilizar para relacionar el tamaño del cerebro con la inteligencia de la especie considerada. Ya que una parte muy importante de la masa cerebral (de las neuronas), se utilizan para procesar una gran cantidad de datos, correspondientes a realizar tareas básicas de supervivencia, como la termorregulación, la respiración, las habilidades motoras y el resto de peculiaridades debidas al tamaño del animal.

Lo que se tiene en cuenta en biología, para calcular la posible inteligencia de una especie animal, es el parámetro denominado cociente de encefalización, que es algo así como la relación entre el tamaño del encéfalo y la masa corporal y corresponde a la relación entre el “tamaño real del cerebro” de un animal y el “tamaño cerebral esperado”, determinado con estadísticas realizadas sobre otros animales de su tamaño. Una ballena azul, por ejemplo, tiene un cerebro de 7 kilos, el mayor de la Tierra, seguido del cerebro del elefante indio de 6 kg, pero ninguno de los dos animales tiene un cociente de encefalización mayor a los humanos, debido a su tamaño.

En animales de peso similar, un delfín y un gorila, por ejemplo, podemos ver también diferencias: el cetáceo tiene un cerebro de unos 1,2 kg, mientras que el del gorila ronda el medio kilo y el humano 1,5 Kg. Podemos ver la relación de los cocientes de encefalización, en la siguiente gráfica.

masa cerebro vs masa corporal

Masa Cerebro Vs. Masa Corporal

coeficiente_de_encefalización

Coeficiente de encefalización para varias Especies

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

En los delfines y los simios el neocórtex presenta, además, un desarrollo más complejo que en otros animales. Mientras el neocórtex es liso en las ratas y algunos otros pequeños mamíferos, en los primates y otros mamíferos, tiene profundos surcos y arrugas. Estos pliegues sirven para aumentar el área del neocórtex y en los delfines sobrepasa a la de cualquier primate. Las neuronas de Von Ecónomo, son un tipo de neurona, de forma alargada y muy especial, ya que en los humanos están relacionadas con la habilidad social y la capacidad de percibir el pensamiento de los demás. Se ha descubierto recientemente, que también se encuentran en grandes simios, cetáceos y elefantes. Por tanto como conclusión general, a medida que el cerebro se agranda en relación con el tamaño corporal, tendrá mayor capacidad disponible para realizar tareas cognitivas.

 

Se ha calculado la energía que consumen las neuronas, tanto las de un cerebro humano, como las de otras especies animales. Se ha concluido que utilizan la misma cantidad, un promedio de 6 calorías por cada mil millones de neuronas por día. De modo que el gasto energético total de un cerebro humano, es de unas 500 Cal/día, que representa casi el 25% de toda la energía que utiliza nuestro cuerpo, teniendo en cuenta que solo representan el 3% de nuestro peso.

evolución cerero hominidos

Evolución del Cerebro Humano

Se ha demostrado también, que existe un equilibrio entre, las calorías de los alimentos crudos que consume un primate, su masa corporal y el número de neuronas de su cerebro. De modo que o se tiene un gran cuerpo o se tiene un gran cerebro (una gran cantidad de neuronas). Cuando comes alimentos crudos, como un primate, no puedes disponer de ambas cosas. La única alternativa posible, es obtener de alguna manera más energía de la misma cantidad de alimentos.

Y extraordinariamente, eso coincide exactamente con lo que se cree, que nuestros ancestros inventaron hace un millón y medio de años atrás, cuando decidieron cocinar los alimentos (ver en la gráfica anterior, como coincide esta fecha, con un incremento exponencial de la masa de nuestro cerebro). Cocinar es utilizar fuego para predigerir los alimentos fuera del cuerpo. Los alimentos cocidos son más suaves, por lo que son más fáciles de masticar y de transformarlos en papilla en la boca, de modo que permite que se digieran por completo y que se absorban en el estómago, lo que los hace producir mucha más energía, en mucho menos tiempo y con menos cantidad de alimentos. Entonces, creo que esto explica por qué el cerebro humano, creció hasta hacerse tan grande y tan rápidamente en la evolución.

 

Una neurona está compuesta por tres partes principales: el soma (núcleo de la neurona), las dendritas (suelen ser varias) y el axón (cola de la neurona). Cuando se produce un mensaje electroquímico, hace que miles de neuronas se activen al mismo tiempo y transmitan el mensaje a neuronas vecinas. Esta conexión se da entre el axón de una neurona con las dendritas de otra y se denomina sinapsis.

esquema neurona

Esquema de una Neurona

Tratar de determinar cuál es la capacidad de procesamiento de un cerebro humano, es una tarea muy compleja conceptualmente. El camino es tratar de simular los procesos que intervienen en una neurona en toda su complejidad, teniendo en cuenta las ramificaciones de las dendritas de las neuronas y la posibilidad de que la sinapsis pueda activar o inhibir el funcionamiento de la neurona, lo que permite simular, los procesos que integran distintos niveles de complejidad. Después de múltiples disputas entre científicos y de errores en varios ordenes de magnitud, se determinó que el cerebro se le podría asociar, siempre con las debidas cautelas, a una capacidad de proceso de 26 Exaflops (2,6 x 1020 flop).

 

 

Entender cómo pensamos, sería un paso de gigante (y tal vez definitivo) para el desarrollo de la Inteligencia Artificial. Y aunque mentar estos avances produce vértigo y miedos en muchos, “La tecnología en lugar de limitarnos y atemorizarnos nos hará más libres. Será como un nuevo humanismo” comenta Rafael Yuste (director del Proyecto BRAIN). Dentro del cráneo no hay magia, la mente humana y todos nuestros pensamientos, nuestros recuerdos y nuestra personalidad, todo está basado en disparos electroquímicos de grupos de neuronas. No hay nada más, no hay un espíritu, un éter. En nuestro caso, tenemos la experiencia psicofísica de que tenemos pensamientos, ideas e imaginación, pero todo esto tiene que deberse al disparo de neuronas. La conciencia surge del sustrato físico que tenemos en el encéfalo. En todo caso, el problema del libre albedrío es muy complejo y hay que ser muy prudentes a la hora de hablar de esta cuestión.

El primer uso del término «singularidad» en este contexto se hizo en 1.958 por el matemático y físico húngaro John von Neumann. El término fue popularizado por el matemático, informático y autor de ciencia ficción Vernor Vinge, quien sostuvo que la inteligencia artificial, la mejora biológica humana, o interfaces cerebro-ordenador podrían ser las posibles causas de la singularidad. En su novela “Un fuego sobre el abismo”, sobre un escenario de Space Opera y Hard Science Fiction nos presenta los esquemas teóricos a partir de los cuales, Vinge nos quiere hacer reflexionar sobre sus propuestas a la compleja cuestión de la singularidad.

 

El nombre de singularidad se tomó prestado de la hipótesis en física denominada singularidad gravitacional, según la cual, en los agujeros negros o en el propio Big-Bang inicial, existe una singularidad gravitacional tal, que las leyes de la física dejan de ser válidas y en consecuencia, ningún evento puede predecirse. Desde nuestro concepto de inteligencia, considerar una inteligencia superior, es inconcebible. Por ese motivo ese tránsito lo consideramos un punto de singularidad.

 

proyecto brain

Proyecto BRAIN

El avance en supercomputación, es tan solo un avance en tecnología, lo que de verdad está impulsando el camino hacia la consecución de una verdadera Inteligencia Artificial es el estudio exhaustivo del cerebro.

Al finalizar la primera década del siglo, en el mundo se pusieron en marcha varios grandes proyectos científicos, cuyo objetivo único, era conocer en profundidad el cerebro humano, lo que vino a representar el desembarco de la gran ciencia en la neurociencia, se comparó en su momento como una continuidad de los grandes retos de la humanidad en investigación, el proyecto Apoyo, el proyecto Genoma, ITER y todos los demás.

 

El reto de desentrañar los misterios que rodean al cerebro y a su funcionamiento, se ha convertido en la aventura investigadora más importante de este siglo y promueve la colaboración de todo el mundo. Estas iniciativas se canalizaron a través de dos grandes iniciativas una Estadounidense el proyecto BRAIN, y otra Europea Human Brain Project, curiosamente con una participación destacada de científicos Españoles. En el caso americano, para entender cómo se transmiten las señales nerviosas a partir de una única neurona hasta llegar a formar conexiones complejas; en el caso europeo, para acelerar la comprensión de las columnas neuronales de la corteza cerebral.

 

human brain project

Human Brain Project

El trabajo de los diferentes proyectos, solo fue posible gracias a la puesta a punto de nuevas plataformas tecnológicas basadas en ciencias de la información, al desarrollo de nuevo hardware y software, con todas sus variantes de herramientas de cálculo, análisis y simulación, y al avance en tecnología de supercomputación y nanotecnología, por su asociación con la microelectrónica y la fotónica. Esto permitió la creación de dispositivos que ayudaron a calibrar y a visualizar la señal eléctrica cerebral, además de identificar las rutas a través de las cuales se desarrolla la actividad sináptica, la formación de circuitos neuronales, la regeneración neuronal y otros fenómenos que se dan en el cerebro.

Para llegar a una correcta simulación cerebral, es preciso un plan para la adquisición y análisis de gigantescos volúmenes de datos y su posterior integración, con tecnologías de imagen, supercomputación y técnicas de Minería de Datos (Cada millón de neuronas puede necesitar tres peta bytes), con lo que un cerebro entero puede ocupar hasta 255.000 peta bytes (2,55 x 1020 bytes). Los algoritmos utilizados por el mejor buscador del mundo son primitivos comparados con los que desarrolla nuestro cerebro.

 

partes cerebro

Diferentes Areas del Cerebro

En cuanto a la denominada medicina del cerebro, se trata de compilar y analizar todos los datos que permitan modelizar y por tanto simular, el comportamiento del cerebro sano y de las enfermedades neurológicas y psiquiátricas. Se pretende detectar y diagnosticar enfermedades como el alzhéimer, el párkinson, la esquizofrenia, la demencia, etc., antes de su aparición, con el fin de lograr, que el paciente cuando acuda a la clínica, su cerebro no esté tan dañado. Si se logrará completar el mapa del cerebro, se podría descubrir el principio de alguna de estas enfermedades.

El progreso tan fuerte que se produjo durante las últimas décadas en supercomputación y en inteligencia artificial, acabo propiciando una superación de la inteligencia humana. Si el avance en ciencia y tecnología, no se detiene y sigue su senda exponencial, llegara un momento en que, la inteligencia artificial habrá alcanzado un punto de complejidad y potencia no controlable por nosotros, sus creadores. En última instancia, habremos llegado a la singularidad. La situación no sólo no quedaría en el punto de pérdida de control, sino que los propios robots (macro ordenadores) seguirían «reproduciéndose» recursivamente según sus principios y conciencia (Von Neumann teorizó sobre ello y de él tomaron el nombre «máquinas de Von Neumann«, aquellas máquinas que tenían capacidad de reproducirse a sí mismas). En este estadio sería imposible predecir cómo avanzaría el curso de la historia.

 

Por otro lado y en contraprestación a lo anterior, estos mismos grandes avances, se aplicaran a nivel cerebral, podríamos hablar de obtener una capacidad cerebral muy superior a la actual, como consecuencia de las ayudas recibidas, por la inclusión tecnológica en la biología humana. A día de hoy estamos tratando de conocer el cerebro, y aunque el avance es lento, sí hay cierto progreso e investigación en comunicación cerebro-máquina. Desde el 2.011 Theodore Bergerse lleva implantando chip en el cerebro de ratas y monos, con resultados bastante espectaculares, su objetivo es preservar los recuerdos a largo plazo que se generan en el hipocampo, es un inicio, después nos implantaremos chip con las instrucciones para hablar un nuevo idioma, o pilotar un helicóptero, ¿quién sabe?

cerero 3D

Imagen 3D Cerebro

El trabajo en el que se centra DARPA (la Agencia de Proyectos de Investigación Avanzados de Defensa de Estados Unidos), es cerrar el hueco existente actualmente entre lo electrónico y lo biológico, mediante el programa llamado «Neural Engineering System Design» (NESD). Esa conexión se trata irremediablemente de convertir, el lenguaje electroquímico de la actividad neuronal, en código binario interpretable por ordenadores. ¿Cómo hacerlo? Desde DARPA hablan de un chip implantable en el cerebro, de menos de un centímetro cúbico, que detecta impulsos cerebrales y los interpreta, pero también se busca comunicación en el sentido del ordenador al cerebro.

 

La sociedad actual está entrando en un cambio de paradigma, propulsado por el conocimiento y la tecnología, pero no solo. La revolución que viene es mucho más compleja y prometedora, para la expansión del espíritu humano. Nunca antes la humanidad ha tenido frente a si, un abanico tan amplio de conocimientos, posibilidades y tecnologías, esto nos llevara a cambios tan profundos, que la sociedad en su conjunto se transformara: la economía, la política, la manera de comprender la realidad e incluso hasta nuestro propio cuerpo. Tenemos la conciencia cada vez más extendida de que el modelo de sociedad en el que vivimos, está agotado y que desde muchos frentes, está emergiendo algo nuevo para lo que debemos prepararnos.

La teoría plantea que los cambios serán tan profundos, que toda la sociedad, a su vez, se transformará: El nivel de procesamiento mental será tan alto, que parecemos seres medievales a los ojos de los individuos de esa nueva civilización.

 

 

En este video podemos ver un resumen de lo que se entiende por Singularidad Tecnológica…

 

 

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